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Vaccine Victory: How COVID-19 shots slash all-cause mortality and outshine misinformation

The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has been a critical development in the global fight against the pandemic. A growing body of research indicates that these vaccines not only reduce the incidence of infection but also significantly decrease all-cause mortality among vaccinated individuals compared to those who are unvaccinated.

• The accumulation of evidence solidly affirms that COVID-19 vaccines not only directly save lives by preventing virus-specific deaths but also play a crucial role in reducing all-cause mortality among vaccinated populations.
• While claims about COVID-19 vaccines being associated with increased mortality have circulated, they are often based on misinterpretation of data, anecdotal evidence, or preliminary research that does not stand up to rigorous scientific scrutiny.
• The consensus among health authorities and scientific community is that COVID-19 vaccines are a critical tool in reducing mortality and severe illness from the virus, with the benefits significantly outweighing the risks.

This blog outlines the key evidence supporting the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on reducing all-cause mortality and addresses some misinformation about the topic.

Direct effect – Prevention of COVID-19 deaths

Research across various COVID-19 vaccines, including those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson, has consistently demonstrated their effectiveness in averting deaths attributable to the virus. Clinical trials and real-world effectiveness studies have shown that these vaccines substantially lower the risk of severe disease, hospitalisation, and mortality due to COVID-19, particularly among high-risk groups such as older adults and individuals with underlying health conditions (Polack et al., 2020; Baden et al., 2021; Voysey et al., 2021).

Indirect effects – Reduction in all-cause mortality

Beyond preventing deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, research indicates that vaccination is associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. This means that vaccinated individuals have a lower risk of dying from any cause compared to their unvaccinated counterparts during similar time periods. This effect is likely due to multiple factors:

• Reduction in healthcare system burden: With fewer severe cases of COVID-19, the pressure on healthcare systems is alleviated, ensuring better availability of care for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19-related health issues, which may contribute to lower mortality rates from various causes (Lopez Bernal et al., 2021).
• Prevention of long-term health effects: COVID-19 can lead to persistent health complications, known as "Long COVID," which might increase mortality risk. Vaccination lowers the likelihood of Long COVID (Catala et al., 2024, Razzaghi et al., 2024) by either preventing the initial infection or mitigating its severity.

Population-Level studies

Evidence at the population level further corroborates the reduction in all-cause mortality associated with vaccination. Studies comparing mortality rates in populations with high vaccination coverage to those with lower levels of vaccination have consistently found reduced all-cause mortality rates in the more highly vaccinated groups, even after adjusting for factors such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. This suggests a significant protective effect of vaccination on overall mortality (Palinkas & Sandor, 2022)